Corn trade was uneventful today with futures closing 1 cent higher across the board. For the week CH gained 10 cents. The market wanted to tie any strength this week to short covering as funds hold a rather large short position, with traditional funds holding an estimated short of 129,000 contracts as of this morning. The other news story that held the market’s attention this week was China rejecting some U.S. corn shipments due to their containing unapproved GMO. Cynics/skeptics might view this as gamesmanship. USDA issues their December S&D next Tuesday with ending stocks estimated at 1,871 mln. bu., slightly lower than in the November report. Exports might increase slightly in the December report as YTD commitments of 1,024 mln. bu. are 73% of current projections and the U.S. should be competitive in the world market until at least April. Weekly export sales of 23.4 mln. bu. were neutral. Weekly ethanol report showed 95.9 mln. bu. of corn used for ethanol, well above what is needed on a weekly basis to meet USDA projections. S. American weather forecasts remain non-threatening through December based on current expectations. Barge freight eased into mid-week but is now firming on cold weather slowing logistics and 600% freight is forecast for the IL River. Memphis/north logistics are being impacted by current winter weather. If the cold weather lasts longer than a week, the trade expects additional issues with river conditions/logistics.
Soybeans put in a nervous week of trade as the market concerned itself with fears over Chinese purchase cancellations and good weather in S. America versus continued good demand for U.S. export soybeans and soymeal (what else is new!) Soybeans were 1-2 cents weaker today in thin trade. SF lost 11 cents this week. SMF lost $9.2 a ton. Weekly export sales of 29.6 mln. bu. were slightly disappointing but YTD commitments are already 1,381 mln. bu., or 95% of USDA projections. This has analysts anticipating an increase in exports in Tuesday’s report, while at the same time worrying over cancellations. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 153 mln. bu., which is also bringing the expectation for U.S. soybean imports to possibly increase as the marketing year progresses. 384 tmt of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations overnight, 189 tmt for 13/14 and 195 tmt for 14/15.
Wheat futures struggled this week with WH losing 18 cents since last Friday. Stats Canada’s wheat production estimate this week that is 4.3 MMT above current USDA projection was negative. U.S. SRW is competitive in the world market but buyers this week gravitated to other classes/origins. Nearby gulf values were down 13 cents this week. Wheat ending stocks are expected to fall slightly to 540 mln. bu. in Tuesday’s S&D report. MARKET MOVERS:
Weekly USDA EXPORT INSPECTIONS Monday 12/9 @ 10:00 am Monthly USDA WASDE Report Tuesday 12/10 @ 11:00 am Weekly USDA EXPORT SALES Thursday 12/12 @ 7:30 am
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